Aquest treball, emmarcat en l’àmbit de les infraestructures aeroportuàries, té tres objectius fonamentals: veure les característiques concretes del transport aeri, que fan que sigui un bé diferent a la resta de bens, estudiar els diversos mètodes que s’utilitzen per a realitzar previsions de demanda de tràfic aeri, i realitzar models economètrics que ens permetin modelitzar aquesta demanda, amb la particularitat que es realitzarà un enfocament regional, en contraposició als models que s’han desenvolupat estudiant els aeroports individualment. La literatura econòmica ha realitzar models que permeten estudiar la realitat i les interaccions que es produeixen en ella. En l’estudi de la demanda, ha parlat de bens per tal de poder definir una teoria de la demanda. En l’estudi del transport, ens trobem que les característiques dels bens definits en els models difereixen de les característiques del transport, i que generalment fa que parlem de serveis en comptes de bens. En el transport aeri trobem el cas que a part de tractar-se d’un bé no emmagatzemable i amb uns costos molts elevats en inversió d’infraestructures, el transport aeri, generalment, separa la construcció i gestió de les infraestructures necessàries per a poder produir els serveis, és a dir, els aeroports, de qui produeix el servei de transport, les companyies aèries. Els diversos mètodes que s’han utilitzat arreu del món per a determinar la demanda futura de transport aeri, han sigut pràcticament universals i no s’han adaptat a les característiques de les regions a les que dona servei cada aeroport ni a la demanda externa que ha de satisfer, realitzant un estudi aeroport a aeroport. En aquest treball deixem constància que els models universals que s’han vingut desenvolupant fins ara, aplicant-los amb un enfocament regional, no s’adapten a totes les regions espanyoles i que és necessari realitzar un estudi exhaustiu de les característiques de cadascuna i de la demanda que ha de satisfer. Hem vist que si apliquem el mateix model de previsió de demanda a totes les regions obtenim resultats molt diversos en el poder explicatiu i predictiu del model. Aquest fet el podem associar a com s’ha desenvolupat el model aeroportuari espanyol, a on tenim molts aeroports i en molts casos molt petits, fet que fa que la demanda que hauria de ser satisfeta per un dels aeroports petits l’acabi satisfent un dels aeroports grans, a on es poden aprofitar les economies d’escala.

This paper is framed in the field of airport infrastructure, in which I wanted to find three main objectives. The first one is to analyse the specific characteristics of air transport that makes this good different from the others. My second goal was to study different methods that are used to make demand-forecasting model for air traffic. Finally, my last aim was to use econometric models that allow us to create this demand, with the particularity that there will be a regional approach. This last idea is opposed to models that have been developed before in which they had study each airport individually. The economic literature has made models that allow us to study the reality and interactions that happen there. In the section of the study of de demand, I always talk about goods in order to define a demand theory. In the study of the transport, we find that the characteristics of goods defined at the models, differ from the characteristics of transport, which makes that generally we talk about services rather than goods. As regards as air transport, we find that is a non-storable goods that has a very high costs and high investment infrastructure. Moreover, air transport divides the construction and infrastructure management that are necessary to produce services. Namely airports, the ones that produces the transport service of airlines. To determine a future air transport demand, I have used various methods that are established all over the world. These ones have not been adapted to the characteristics of the regions and neither to the external demand (doing a study airport by airport). In this paper, I want to state that universal models that everyone has been using so far are not adapted to all Spanish regions. In addition, it is necessary to make a comprehensive study of the characteristics and the demand that we want to satisfy. Once we have seen the study, I can show that is we apply the same model of forecast demand to all regions, we obtain different results therefore predictive side as well as the explanatory side. This fact can be associated to the behaviour of Spanish airport model, in which we have a lot of airports and also very little ones, which makes that the demand that could be satisfied by little airports, are finally satisfied by the big airports, in which they take advantage on economies of scale.