Author:
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Malley, Christopher S.; Henze, Daven K.; Kuylenstierna, Johan C. I.; Vallack, Harry W.; Davila, Yanko; Anenberg, Susan C.; Turner, Michelle C.; Ashmore, Mike R.
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Abstract:
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BACKGROUND: Relative risk estimates for long-term ozone (O3)
exposure and respiratory mortality from the American Cancer
Society Cancer Prevention Study II (ACS CPS-II) cohort have been
used to estimate global O3-attributable mortality in adults.
Updated relative risk estimates are now available for the same
cohort based on an expanded study population with longer
follow-up. OBJECTIVES: We estimated the global burden and
spatial distribution of respiratory mortality attributable to
long-term O3 exposure in adults >/=30y of age using updated
effect estimates from the ACS CPS-II cohort. METHODS: We used
GEOS-Chem simulations (2x2.5 masculine grid resolution) to
estimate annual O3 exposures, and estimated total respiratory
deaths in 2010 that were attributable to long-term annual O3
exposure based on the updated relative risk estimates and
minimum risk thresholds set at the minimum or fifth percentile
of O3 exposure in the most recent CPS-II analysis. These
estimates were compared with attributable mortality based on the
earlier CPS-II analysis, using 6-mo average exposures and risk
thresholds corresponding to the minimum or fifth percentile of
O3 exposure in the earlier study population. RESULTS: We
estimated 1.04-1.23 million respiratory deaths in adults
attributable to O3 exposures using the updated relative risk
estimate and exposure parameters, compared with 0.40-0.55
million respiratory deaths attributable to O3 exposures based on
the earlier CPS-II risk estimate and parameters. Increases in
estimated attributable mortality were larger in northern India,
southeast China, and Pakistan than in Europe, eastern United
States, and northeast China. CONCLUSIONS: These findings suggest
that the potential magnitude of health benefits of air quality
policies targeting O3, health co-benefits of climate mitigation
policies, and health implications of climate change-driven
changes in O3 concentrations, are larger than previously
thought. https://doi.org/10.1289/EHP1390. |