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Title:
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The appraisal of machine learning techniques for tourism demand forecasting
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Author:
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Claveria, Oscar; Monte Moreno, Enrique; Torra Porras, Salvador
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Other authors:
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Universitat Politècnica de Catalunya. Departament de Teoria del Senyal i Comunicacions; Universitat Politècnica de Catalunya. VEU - Grup de Tractament de la Parla |
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Abstract:
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Machine learning (ML) methods are being increasingly used with forecasting purposes. This study assesses the predictive performance of several ML models in a multiple-input multiple-output (MIMO) setting that allows incorporating the cross-correlations between the inputs. We compare the forecast accuracy of a Gaussian process regression (GPR) model to that of different neural network architectures in a multi-step-ahead time series prediction experiment. We find that the radial basis function (RBF) network outperforms the GPR model, especially for long-term forecast horizons. As the memory of the models increases, the forecasting performance of the GPR improves, suggesting the convenience of designing a model selection criteria in order to estimate the optimal number of lags used for concatenation. |
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Abstract:
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Peer Reviewed |
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Subject(s):
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-Àrees temàtiques de la UPC::Informàtica::Intel·ligència artificial::Aprenentatge automàtic
-Machine learning
-Machine Learning
-Multiple-input Multiple-output (MIMO)
-Gaussian Process Regression
-Neural networks
-Forecasting
-Aprenentatge automàtic |
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Rights:
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Document type:
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Article - Submitted version
Book Part |
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Published by:
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Nova Science Publishers, Inc.
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