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Title:
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A data-driven approach to construct survey-based indicators by means of evolutionary algorithms
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Author:
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Claveria, Oscar; Monte Moreno, Enrique; Torra Porras, Salvador
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Other authors:
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Universitat Politècnica de Catalunya. Departament de Teoria del Senyal i Comunicacions; Universitat Politècnica de Catalunya. VEU - Grup de Tractament de la Parla |
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Abstract:
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The final publication is available at Springer via http://dx.doi.org/10.1007/s11205-016-1490-3 |
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Abstract:
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In this paper we propose a data-driven approach for the construction of survey-based indicators using large data sets. We make use of agents’ expectations about a wide range of economic variables contained in the World Economic Survey, which is a tendency survey conducted by the Ifo Institute for Economic Research. By means of genetic programming we estimate a symbolic regression that links survey-based expectations to a quantitative variable used as a yardstick, deriving mathematical functional forms that approximate the target variable. We use the evolution of GDP as a target. This set of empirically-generated indicators of economic growth, are used as building blocks to construct an economic indicator. We compare the proposed indicator to the Economic Climate Index, and we evaluate its predictive performance to track the evolution of the GDP in ten European economies. We find that in most countries the proposed indicator outperforms forecasts generated by a benchmark model. |
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Abstract:
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Peer Reviewed |
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Subject(s):
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-Àrees temàtiques de la UPC::Economia i organització d'empreses
-Àrees temàtiques de la UPC::Informàtica::Programació
-Economic indicators
-Genetic programming (Computer science)
-Economic indicators
-Survey-based indicators
-Tendency surveys
-Symbolic regression
-Evolutionary algorithms
-Genetic programming
-Indicadors econòmics
-Programació genètica (Informàtica) |
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Rights:
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Document type:
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Article - Submitted version
Article |
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