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Títol:
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Business Cycle Regimes in CEECs Production: A Threshold SURE Approach
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Autor/a:
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Aslanidis, Nektarios
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Altres autors:
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Universitat Rovira i Virgili. Departament d'Economia |
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Resum:
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We use a threshold seemingly unrelated regressions specification to assess whether the Central and East European countries (CEECs) are synchronized in their business cycles to the Euro-area. This specification is useful in two ways: First, it takes into account the common institutional factors and the similarities across CEECs in their process of economic transition. Second, it captures business cycle asymmetries by allowing for the presence of two distinct regimes for the CEECs. As the CEECs are strongly affected by the Euro-area these regimes may be associated with Euro-area expansions and contractions. We discuss representation, estimation by maximum likelihood and inference. The methodology is illustrated by using monthly industrial production in 8 CEECs. The results show that apart from Lithuania the rest of the CEECs experience “normal” growth when the Euro-area contracts and “high” growth when the Euro-area expands. Given that the CEECs are “catching up” with the Euro-area this result shows that most CEECs seem synchronized to the Euro-area cycle. Keywords: Threshold SURE; asymmetry; business cycles; CEECs. JEL classification: C33; C50; E32. |
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Data de publicació:
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2007 |
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Matèries (CDU):
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33 - Economia |
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Matèries:
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Cicles econòmics
Europa Central
Europa de l'Est |
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Drets:
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Aquest document està subjecte a una llicència d'ús de Creative Commons, amb la qual es permet copiar, distribuir i comunicar públicament l'obra sempre que se'n citin l'autor original, la universitat i el departament i no se'n faci cap ús comercial ni obra derivada, tal com queda estipulat en la llicència d'ús (http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc-nd/2.5/es/) |
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Tipus de document:
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Document de treball |
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ISSN:
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1988 - 0812
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Col·lecció:
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Documents de treball del Departament d'Economia;2007-08
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Compartir:
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