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Title: | Multivariate statistical modelling of future marine storms |
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Author: | Lin Ye, Jue; García León, Manuel; Gracia Garcia, Vicente; Ortego Martínez, María Isabel; Lionello, Piero; Sánchez-Arcilla Conejo, Agustín |
Other authors: | Universitat Politècnica de Catalunya. Departament d'Enginyeria Civil i Ambiental; Universitat Politècnica de Catalunya. LIM/UPC - Laboratori d'Enginyeria Marítima; Universitat Politècnica de Catalunya. COSDA-UPC - COmpositional and Spatial Data Analysis |
Abstract: | Extreme events, such as wave-storms, need to be characterized for coastal infrastructure design purposes. Such description should contain information on both the univariate behaviour and the joint-dependence of storm-variables. These two aspects have been here addressed through generalized Pareto distributions and hierarchical Archimedean copulas. A non-stationary model has been used to highlight the relationship between these extreme events and non-stationary climate. It has been applied to a Representative Concentration Pathway 8.5 Climate-Change scenario, for a fetch-limited environment (Catalan Coast). In the non-stationary model, all considered variables decrease in time, except for storm-duration at the northern part of the Catalan Coast. The joint distribution of storm variables presents cyclical fluctuations, with a stronger influence of climate dynamics than of climate itself. |
Abstract: | Peer Reviewed |
Subject(s): | -Àrees temàtiques de la UPC::Enginyeria civil::Enginyeria hidràulica, marítima i sanitària::Ports i costes -Storms--Forecasting -Storms--Statistical methods -Wave storm -Catalan Coast -Hierarchical Archimedean copula -Generalized Pareto distribution -Non-stationarity -Generalized additive model -Tempestes |
Rights: | Attribution-NonCommercial-NoDerivs 3.0 Spain
http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc-nd/3.0/es/ |
Document type: | Article - Submitted version Article |
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