Xanthomonas arboricola pv. pruni is the causal agent of bacterial spot disease of stone fruits and almond. The bacterium is distributed throughout the major stone-fruit-producing areas of the World and is considered a quarantine organism in the European Union according to the Council Directive 2000/29/EC, and by the European and Mediterranean Plant Protection Organization. The effect of leaf wetness duration and temperature on infection of Prunus by X. arboricola pv. pruni was determined in controlled environment experiments. Potted plants of the peach-almond hybrid GF-677 were inoculated with bacterial suspensions and exposed to combinations of six leaf wetness durations (from 0 to 24 h) and seven fixed temperatures (from 5 to 35°C) during the infection period. Then, plants were transferred to a biosafety greenhouse, removed from bags, and incubated at optimal conditions for disease development. Although leaf wetness was required for infection of Prunus by X. arboricola pv. pruni, temperature had a greater effect than leaf wetness duration on disease severity. The combined effect of wetness duration and temperature on disease severity was quantified using a modification of the Weibull equation proposed by Duthie. The reduced-form of Duthie's model obtained by nonlinear regression analysis fitted well to data (R = 0.87 and R2adj = 0.85), and all parameters were significantly different from 0. The estimated optimal temperature for infection by X. arboricola pv. pruni was 28.9°C. Wetness periods longer than 10 h at temperatures close to 20°C, or 5 h at temperatures between 25 and 35°C were necessary to cause high disease severity. The predictive capacity of the model was evaluated using an additional set of data obtained from new wetness duration-temperature combinations. In 92% of the events the observed severity agreed with the predicted level of infection risk. The risk chart derived from the reduced form of Duthie's model can be used to estimate the potential risk for infection of Prunus by X. arboricola pv. pruni based on observed or forecasted temperature and wetness duration

Ministerio de Educación, Ciencia y Deporte (AGL2013-41405-R, FPU13/04123) of Spain (https://www.mecd.gob.es/). University of Girona (SING12/13, MPCUdG2016/085) (www. udg.edu). European Union’s Seventh Framework Programme for research, technological development and demonstration under grant agreement number 613678 (DROPSA)