dc.contributor.author |
Britton, Tom |
dc.contributor.author |
Juher, David |
dc.contributor.author |
Saldaña, Joan |
dc.date |
2017 |
dc.identifier |
https://ddd.uab.cat/record/182503 |
dc.identifier |
urn:10.1007/s11538-016-0227-4 |
dc.identifier |
urn:oai:ddd.uab.cat:182503 |
dc.identifier |
urn:gsduab:4367 |
dc.identifier |
urn:articleid:00928240v78n12p2427 |
dc.identifier |
urn:scopus_id:84992734353 |
dc.identifier |
urn:wos_id:000387864000007 |
dc.identifier |
urn:altmetric_id:4829544 |
dc.format |
application/pdf |
dc.language |
eng |
dc.publisher |
|
dc.relation |
Ministerio de Economía y Competitividad MTM2011-27739-C04-03 |
dc.relation |
Ministerio de Economía y Competitividad MTM2014-52402-C3-3-P |
dc.relation |
Agència de Gestió d'Ajuts Universitaris i de Recerca 2014/SGR-1083 |
dc.relation |
Agència de Gestió d'Ajuts Universitaris i de Recerca 2014/SGR-555 |
dc.relation |
Bulletin of Mathematical Biology ; Vol. 78 Núm. 12 (2017), p. 2427-2454 |
dc.rights |
open access |
dc.rights |
Tots els drets reservats. |
dc.rights |
https://rightsstatements.org/vocab/InC/1.0/ |
dc.subject |
Branching process |
dc.subject |
Network epidemic models |
dc.subject |
Pair approximation |
dc.subject |
Preventive rewiring |
dc.title |
A network epidemic model with preventive rewiring: comparative analysis of the initial phase |
dc.type |
Article |
dc.description.abstract |
Aquest article té un Erratum accessible a: https://doi.org/10.1007/s11538-017-0295-0 |
dc.description.abstract |
Agraïments: T.B. is grateful to Riksbankens Jubileumsfond (Grant P12-0705:1) for financial support. |
dc.description.abstract |
This paper is concerned with stochastic SIR and SEIR epidemic models on random networks in which individuals may rewire away from infected individuals at some rate so-called preventive rewiring. The models are denoted SIR- and SEIR- and we focus attention on the early stages of an outbreak, where we derive expression for the basic reproduction number R_0 and the expected degree of the infectious nodes E(D_I) using two different approximation approaches. The first approach approximates the early spread of an epidemic by a branching process, whereas the second one uses pair approximation. The expressions are compared with the corresponding empirical means obtained from stochastic simulations of SIR- and SEIR- epidemics on Poisson and scale-free networks. For SIR- and the SEIR- case without rewiring of exposed nodes, both approaches predict the same epidemic threshold and the same E(D_I), the latter being very close to the observed mean degree D_I in simulated epidemics over Poisson networks. Above the epidemic threshold, pairwise models overestimate the value of R_0 obtained from the simulations, which turns out to be very close to the one predicted by the branching process approximation. For SEIR- where exposed individuals also rewire (perhaps unaware of being infected), the two approaches give different epidemic thresholds, with the branching process approximation being more in agreement with simulations. |