https://hdl.handle.net/2072/378197 2026-04-07T21:04:35Z 2026-04-07T21:04:35Z Damoun, Osama Centre d'Estudis Demogràfics Yildiz, Dilek Samir, KC https://hdl.handle.net/2072/489393 2026-03-29T18:55:05Z 2026-01-01T00:00:00Z

A Multidimensional projection of future regional inequalities : migration and educational attainment in Spain 2021-2071 Damoun, Osama; Centre d'Estudis Demogràfics; Yildiz, Dilek; Samir, KC Population projections can be substantially enhanced by incorporating dimensions beyond age and sex. This study presents a multidimensional population projection for Spain by educational attainment, origin, and sub-national region, explicitly accounting for future social heterogeneity. Using data from the Spanish National Statistics Institute (INE) for the period 2017-2023, the baseline population is set in 2021 and projected in five-year intervals through 2071. The projections are disaggregated by three educational levels, five origin groups, and 17 NUTS-2 regions, and implemented within a multistate framework in which education is modelled as a transitioning state. Five projection scenarios are defined, including one that assumes an improvement in the educational composition of migrants. The analysis examines (1) whether the educational profiles of migrants are likely to reinforce ethnostratification; and (2) whether Spanish regions are expected to converge or diverge in terms of educational attainment and origin composition. Results indicate that Spain's total population is projected to peak around mid-century and subsequently decline, with only seven regions experiencing population growth by 2071 under the medium scenario. Educational progress among migrants largely stagnates across regions and origin groups, except in the educational improvement scenario, where educational attainment increases and convergence is observed. Overall, population growth remains uneven and ethnostratification persists, with meaningful reductions in inequality occurring only under assumptions of improved migrant education. These outcomes, however, remain highly contingent on policy choices and sectoral employment structures. This study provides the first regional-level population projection for Spain that jointly incorporates education and origin, highlighting substantial heterogeneity across regions and offering an innovative framework for modelling social stratification in population projections.

2026-01-01T00:00:00Z Ramos Martín, Jesús Matsumoto, Shigeru Universitat Autònoma de Barcelona. Unitat d'Història Econòmica https://hdl.handle.net/2072/489392 2026-03-29T18:55:03Z 2025-01-01T00:00:00Z

Living smaller, consuming more? : the energy implications of aging and shrinking households in Spain Ramos Martín, Jesús; Matsumoto, Shigeru; Universitat Autònoma de Barcelona. Unitat d'Història Econòmica Accurate projections of residential energy consumption are crucial for achieving decarbonization targets; however, most models overlook demographic dynamics-particularly changes in household composition-which significantly impact energy demand. This study addresses this gap by integrating demographic projections into bottom-up energy forecasts for Spain's residential sector from 2021 to 2039. Using microdata from the Household Budget Survey and disaggregating households into nine types based on size and age structure, the model captures heterogeneous energy use patterns and their evolution over time. Results show that the increasing prevalence of single-person and elderly households, which are less efficient due to reduced economies of scale, offsets much of the expected energy savings from technological improvements. Compared to aggregate models, this disaggregated approach yields more conservative estimates: while per-household and per-capita consumption decline, total residential energy use may increase slightly unless stronger efficiency gains are achieved. To meet Spain's target of a 1.69% annual reduction in residential energy use by 2030, per-household energy consumption must decrease by over 3.4% annually-more than double the historical rate. These findings highlight the critical role of demographic structure in shaping energy demand and underscore the limitations of conventional modeling approaches. By incorporating household composition into projections, this research enhances the accuracy of energy scenarios and provides evidence for the need to align housing and energy policies with demographic trends. Targeted strategies-such as promoting smaller, energy-efficient dwellings and accelerating building retrofits-are essential for achieving climate goals in an aging and increasingly fragmented society.

2025-01-01T00:00:00Z López García, Miguel Ángel Institut Universitari d'Estudis Europeus https://hdl.handle.net/2072/489377 2026-03-22T19:52:31Z 1991-01-01T00:00:00Z

Cotizaciones sociales e imposición sobre la nómina : una nota y una comparación tentativa España-CEE López García, Miguel Ángel; Institut Universitari d'Estudis Europeus El presente trabajo trata diversos aspectos referidos a las cotizaciones a la seguridad social y su relación con la imposición sobre la nómina de salarios. En primer lugar, se argumenta que las cotizaciones sociales no constituyen sino una forma de imposición cuya base está constituida por la nómina de salarios, y que, en consecuencia, puede valer la pena preguntarse cuál es el tipo impositivo sobre la nómina con independencia de las etiquetas colocadas a sus componentes, es decir, con independencia de si son pagadas nominalmente por el trabajador o por su empresario. En segundo lugar, se realiza una comparación tentativa entre España y la CEE que, para el año del que se dispone de datos, sugiere que el tipo del impuesto sobre la nómina para la seguridad social en España no era muy diferente del promedio de la CEE. En la sección 2 se discute un marco sencillo en el que obtener una expresión para el tipo del impuesto sobre la nómina en función de los tipos de cotización a cargo del empresario y del trabajador. Se argumenta que la mera suma de los tipos legales de cotización de ambos no constituye una medida de la cuña impositiva relevante. En la sección 3 se realizan algunos comentarios adicionales acerca de las variaciones de los tipos de cotización y sus efectos sobre el tipo impositivo sobre la nómina. Se demuestra que los cambios tales que el incremento de una cotización es igual a la disminución de la otra pueden dar lugar tanto a que aumente como a que disminuya el tipo de gravamen sobre la nómina de salarios. En la sección 4 se relacionan algunos de los resultados de las secciones anteriores con una formulación estándar de las decisiones de demanda de fuerza de trabajo en un marco de equilibrio parcial, utilizando para ello un diagrama usual en los ejes precio-cantidad. La comparación entre los tipos impositivos en España y algunos países de la CEE se lleva a cabo en la sección 5, y se comparan tanto la aproximación como los resultados con los de otros autores. Finalmente, la sección 6 proporciona algunos comentarios a modo de conclusión y deriva algunas de las consecuencias que pueden obtenerse a partir del análisis.; This paper deals with some topics concerning social security contributions and their relationship with payroll taxation. Firstly, it is argued that these contributions are nothing but payroll taxes, and, as a consequence, it may be worth inquiring what is the relevant payroll tax rate regardless of the labels of its components, i.e., regardless of whether they are nominally paid by the employer or by the employee. Secondly, a tentative comparison between Spain and the EEC is advanced that, for the year for which data have been available, suggests that the payroll tax rate for social security in Spain was not very different from the EEC average. In section 2 we discuss a simple framework in which to obtain an expression for the social security payroll tax rate as a function of the employer and employee contribution rates. It is argued that the mere addition of the statutory employer and employee rates is not a measure of the relevant tax wedge. In section 3 we make some further comments about the variations of the contribution rates and their implied effects on the payroll tax rate. It is shown that the changes verifying that the increase in a contribution is equal to the decrease in the other may give rise either to a rise or a fall in the payroll tax rate. Section 4 relates some of the results of the previous sections to a standard formulation of the demand for labour force in a partial equilibrium framework, and several insigths are obtained using a price-quantity diagram. The comparison of the social security payroll tax rates in Spain and in some EEC countries is carried out in section 5, and both the approach and the results are compared to those of some authors. Finally, section 6 provides some concluding comments and derives some consequences that can be drawn from the analysis.

1991-01-01T00:00:00Z Payro Chew, Fernando Piermont, E. https://hdl.handle.net/2072/489246 2026-02-22T19:56:45Z 2023-01-01T00:00:00Z

Modeling the modeler : a normative theory of experimental design Payro Chew, Fernando; Piermont, E. We consider an analyst whose goal is to identify a subject's utility function through revealed preference analysis. We argue the analyst's preference about which experiments to run should adhere to three normative principles: The first, Structural Invariance, requires that the value of a choice experiment only depends on what the experiment may potentially reveal. The second, Identification Separability, demands that the value of identification is independent of what would have been counterfactually identified had the subject had a different utility. Finally, Information Monotonicity asks that more in- formative experiments are preferred. We provide a representation theorem, showing that these three principles characterize Expected Identification Value maximization, a functional form that unifies several theories of experimental design. We also study several special cases and discuss potential applications.

2023-01-01T00:00:00Z