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Título:
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Human-caused fire occurrence modelling in perspective: a review
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Autor/a:
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Costafreda Aumedes, Sergi; Comas Rodríguez, Carles; Vega García, Cristina
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Notas:
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The increasing global concern about wildfires, mostly caused by people, has triggered the development of
human-caused fire occurrence models in many countries. The premise is that better knowledge of the underlying factors is
critical for many fire management purposes, such as operational decision-making in suppression and strategic prevention
planning, or guidance on forest and land-use policies. However, the explanatory and predictive capacity of fire occurrence
models is not yet widely applied to the management of forests, fires or emergencies. In this article, we analyse the
developments in the field of human-caused fire occurrence modelling with the aim of identifying the most appropriate
variables and methods for applications in forest and fire management and civil protection. We stratify our worldwide
analysis by temporal dimension (short-term and long-term) and by model output (numeric or binary), and discuss
management applications. An attempt to perform a meta-analysis based on published models proved limited because of
non-equivalence of the metrics and units of the estimators and outcomes across studies, the diversity of models and the lack
of information in published works.
We acknowledge with gratitude the useful contributions of the three anonymous reviewers and the Associate Editor of this review paper. This research article received a grant for its linguistic revision from the Language Institute of the University of Lleida in 2017. |
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Materia(s):
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-Meta-analysis
-Predictive models
-Space–time patterns
-Wildfire |
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Derechos:
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cc-by-nc-nd, (c) IAWF, 2017
https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc-nd/4.0/
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Tipo de documento:
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article
acceptedVersion |
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Editor:
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CSIRO Publishing
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Compartir:
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