Primary graft dysfunction is a significant cause of lung transplant morbidity and mortality, but its underlying mechanisms are not completely understood. The aims of the present study were: 1) to confirm that right ventricular function is a risk factor for severe primary graft dysfunction; and 2) to propose a clinical model for predicting the development of severe primary graft dysfunction.A prospective cohort study was performed over 14 months. The primary outcome was development of primary graft dysfunction grade 3. An echocardiogram was performed immediately before transplantation, measuring conventional and speckle-tracking parameters. Pulmonary artery catheter data were also measured. A classification and regression tree was made to identify prognostic models for the development of severe graft dysfunction.70 lung transplant recipients were included. Patients who developed severe primary graft dysfunction had better right ventricular function, as estimated by cardiac index (3.5±0.8 versus 2.6±0.7 L·min-1·m-2, p<0.01) and basal longitudinal strain (-25.7±7.3% versus -19.5±6.6%, p<0.01). Regression tree analysis provided an algorithm based on the combined use of three variables (basal longitudinal strain, pulmonary fibrosis disease and ischaemia time), allowing accurate preoperative discrimination of three distinct subgroups with low (11-20%), intermediate (54%) and high (75%) risk of severe primary graft dysfunction (area under the receiver operating characteristic curve 0.81).Better right ventricular function is a risk factor for the development of severe primary graft dysfunction. Preoperative estimation of right ventricular function could allow early identification of recipients at increased risk, who would benefit the most from careful perioperative management in order to limit pulmonary overflow

Dr. Pérez-Terán is the recipient of a “Rio Hortega” grant (Ref. CM12/00216) from the Instituto de Salud Carlos III, Ministerio de Ciencia e Innovación.