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Título:
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Comparison of past projections of global and regional primary and final energy consumption with historical data
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Autor/a:
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Cabeza, Luisa F.; Palacios, Anabel; Serrano, Susana; Ürge-Vorsatz, Diana; Barreneche Güerisoli, Camila
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Notas:
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Energy planning is fundamental for energy planners to accurately plan for the future and to utilize the sustainable and renewable energy resources to a larger extent. But how well are we able to project the future? In this paper, past projections of global and regional energy consumption are compared to real data. The conclusions found that when comparing energy consumption projections with real registered data projections in 1977 substantially overestimated energy demand in the future, while later projections in the 80 s and 90 s were closer to reality, slightly underestimating real growth in demand. Although projections made in these two decades for total demand were typically slightly underestimated, per capita projections were still overestimating real trends. Considering the building sector, residential and commercial, energy consumption was underestimated in WEO 1982 and WEO 1994; and again, when per capita values are considered, higher values than reality were projected.
The work is partially funded by the Spanish government (ENE2015-64117-C5-1-R (MINECO/FEDER)). The authors would like to thank the Catalan Government for the quality accreditation given to their research group GREA (2014 SGR 123) and research group DIOPMA (2014 SGR 1543). GREA and DIOPMA are certified agents TECNIO in the category of technology developers from the Government of Catalonia. Dr. Camila Barreneche would like to thank Ministerio de Economia y Competitividad de España for Grant Juan de la Cierva, FJCI-2014-22886. |
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Materia(s):
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-Primary energy consumption
-Final energy consumption
-Global and regional
-Projections
-OECD countries |
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Derechos:
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cc-by-nc-nd, (c) Elsevier, 2017
http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc-nd/4.0/
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Tipo de documento:
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Artículo
Artículo - Versión aceptada |
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Editor:
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Elsevier
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Compartir:
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