Abstract:
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Risk is defined, for management purposes, as the potential economic, social and
environmental consequences of hazardous events that may occur in a specified
period of time. From the perspective of this paper, risk requires a multidisciplinary
evaluation that takes into account not only the expected physical damage, the
number and type of casualties or economic losses, but also the conditions related to
social fragility and lack of resilience conditions, which favour the second order
effects when a hazard event strike an urban centre. The proposed general method of
urban risk evaluation uses the fuzzy sets theory in order to manage qualitative
concepts and variables involved in the evaluation. Finally, the method is applied in
its single hazard version to the holistic seismic risk evaluation for the cities of
Barcelona (Spain) and Bogotá (Colombia). |