Sistema de Salut de Catalunya
Institut Català de la Salut
[Santoro F] Department of Medical and Surgical Sciences, University of Foggia, Foggia, Italy. [Núñez-Gil IJ] Hospital Clinico San Carlos, Madrid, Spain. [Viana-Llamas MC] Hospital Universitario Guadalajara, Guadalajara, Spain. [Alfonso-Rodríguez E] Bellvitge University Hospital, Hospitalet de Llobregat, Barcelona, Spain. [Uribarri A] Vall d’Hebron Hospital Universitari, Barcelona, Spain. [Becerra-Muñoz VM] Servicio de Cardiología, Hospital Universitario Virgen de la Victoria, IBIMA, Málaga, Spain
Vall d'Hebron Barcelona Hospital Campus
2024-06-05T06:31:13Z
2024-06-05T06:31:13Z
2024-06
COVID-19; Long-COVID; Prognostic score
COVID-19; COVID llarg; Puntuació pronòstica
COVID-19; COVID largo; Puntuación pronóstica
Background Long-term consequences of COVID-19 are still partly known. Aim of the study To derive a clinical score for risk prediction of long-term major cardiac adverse events (MACE) and all cause death in COVID-19 hospitalized patients. Methods 2573 consecutive patients were enrolled in a multicenter, international registry (HOPE-2) from January 2020 to April 2021 and identified as the derivation cohort. Five hundred and twenty-six patients from the Cardio-Covid-Italy registry were considered as external validation cohort. A long-term prognostic risk score for MACE and all cause death was derived from a multivariable regression model. Results Out of 2573 patients enrolled in the HOPE-2 registry, 1481 (58 %) were male, with mean age of 60±16 years. At long-term follow-up, the overall rate of patients affected by MACE and/or all cause death was 7.8 %. After multivariable regression analysis, independent predictors of MACE and all cause death were identified. The HOPE-2 prognostic score was therefore calculated by giving: 1–4 points for age class (<65 years, 65–74, 75–84, ≥85), 3 points for history of cardiovascular disease, 1 point for hypertension, 3 points for increased troponin serum levels at admission and 2 points for acute renal failure during hospitalization. Score accuracy at ROC curve analysis was 0.79 (0.74 at external validation). Stratification into 3 risk groups (<3, 3–6, >6 points) classified patients into low, intermediate and high risk. The observed MACE and all-cause death rates were 1.9 %, 9.4 % and 26.3 % for low- intermediate and high-risk patients, respectively (Log-rank test p < 0.01). Conclusions The HOPE-2 prognostic score may be useful for long-term risk stratification in patients with previous COVID-19 hospitalization. High-risk patients may require a strict follow-up.
Article
Published version
English
COVID-19 (Malaltia); Avaluació del risc; Cor - Malalties - Factors de risc; DISEASES::Virus Diseases::RNA Virus Infections::Nidovirales Infections::Coronaviridae Infections::Coronavirus Infections; ANALYTICAL, DIAGNOSTIC AND THERAPEUTIC TECHNIQUES, AND EQUIPMENT::Investigative Techniques::Epidemiologic Methods::Statistics as Topic::Probability::Risk::Risk Assessment; DISEASES::Cardiovascular Diseases; ANALYTICAL, DIAGNOSTIC AND THERAPEUTIC TECHNIQUES, AND EQUIPMENT::Therapeutics::Patient Care::Hospitalization; ENFERMEDADES::virosis::infecciones por virus ARN::infecciones por Nidovirales::infecciones por Coronaviridae::infecciones por Coronavirus; TÉCNICAS Y EQUIPOS ANALÍTICOS, DIAGNÓSTICOS Y TERAPÉUTICOS::técnicas de investigación::métodos epidemiológicos::estadística como asunto::probabilidad::riesgo::evaluación de riesgos; ENFERMEDADES::enfermedades cardiovasculares; TÉCNICAS Y EQUIPOS ANALÍTICOS, DIAGNÓSTICOS Y TERAPÉUTICOS::terapéutica::asistencia al paciente::hospitalización
Elsevier
European Journal of Internal Medicine;124
https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ejim.2024.03.002
Attribution-NonCommercial-NoDerivatives 4.0 International
http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc-nd/4.0/
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