Abstract:
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A probabilistic model to estimate the seismic risk of buildings is evaluated. For
this purpose a specific methodology is proposed. The developed methodology
allows explicitly consider important uncertainties that are present in the main
elements, that are used to estimate the seismic risk of buildings. One of these
elements is the seismic vulnerability of each building, which is mainly
represented in the proposed methodology through probability density functions
that describe the variation of a vulnerability index. In the developed methodology,
the seismic vulnerability is considered as a property that is changing through the
time. Therefore, it is possible to estimate seismic vulnerability curves for different
stages on the future life of a building. The methodology was used to estimate the
seismic risk of 59,905 buildings of Barcelona. According to the results, in
average, 53,152 buildings have a probability lower than 5% of suffer some kind
of collapse during the next 50 years. If the government of Barcelona conducts a
program to do a seismic rehabilitation of buildings, then the first buildings that
could be evaluated for rehabilitation purposes could correspond to the 1,317
buildings, which were identified in this work as the buildings with the highest
seismic vulnerability. |