Universitat Autònoma de Barcelona
We investigate if a reduction of government consumption lowers the sovereign default premium. For this purpose we build a new data set for 38 emerging and developed economies. Results vary along three dimensions. First, the time horizon: the premium declines, but only in the long run. Second, initial conditions: the premium increases in the short run, but only if it is already high. Third, size: the short-run response of the premium increases disproportionately as government consumption is reduced. We rationalize these findings in a structural model of optimal sovereign default where default risk is priced in an actuarially fair manner.
English
Fiscal policy; Austerity; Sovereign risk; Default premium; Local projections; Panel VAR; Fiscal stress
European Commission 649396
Barcelona Graduate School of Economics. ADEMU working paper series ;
open access
Aquest document està subjecte a una llicència d'ús Creative Commons. Es permet la reproducció total o parcial, la distribució, la comunicació pública de l'obra i la creació d'obres derivades, fins i tot amb finalitats comercials, sempre i quan es reconegui l'autoria de l'obra original.
https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/
Working papers [2842]
