Analysis and prediction of COVID-19 for EU-EFTA-UK and other countries

Abstract

The present report aims to provide a comprehensive picture of the pandemic situation of COVID-19 in the EU countries, and to be able to foresee the situation in the next coming days. We provide some figures and tables with several indexes and indicators as well as an Analysissection that discusses a specific topic related with the pandemic. As for the predictions, we employ an empirical model, verified with the evolution of the number of confirmed cases in previous countries where the epidemic is close to conclude, including all provinces of China. The model does not pretend to interpret the causes of the evolution of the cases but to permit the evaluation of the quality of control measures made in each state and a short-term prediction of trends. Note, however, that the effects of the measures’ control that start on a given day are not observed until approximately 7-14 days later. We show an individual report with 8 graphs and a summary table with the main indicators for different countries and regions. We are adjusting the model to countries and regions with at least 4 days with more than 100 confirmed cases and a current load over 200 cases.

These reports are funded by the European Commission (DG CONNECT, LC-01485746) PJC and MC received funding from “la Caixa” Foundation (ID 100010434), under agreement LCF/PR/GN17/50300003; CP, DL, SA, MC, received funding from Ministerio de Ciencia, Innovación y Universidades and FEDER, with the project PGC2018-095456-B-I00

Postprint (published version)