The economic impact of sea level rise-induced decrease in the carrying capacity of Catalan beaches (NW Mediterranean, Spain)

Abstract

Sea-level rise (SLR)-induced erosion will contribute significantly to the reduction of the surface of beaches worldwide. In the absence of adaptation measures, this implies a decrease in the recreational carrying capacity provided by beaches, which in turn could significantly affect the economies of the areas associated with the “sun-and-beach” tourism model. Here, we propose a methodology to assess the demand-side economic impact by applying an input/output analysis, assuming that the beach carrying capacity is linked to the potential tourism demand, and consequently, to tourism consumption and output. Moreover, to properly evaluate the spatial variations in the impact throughout the territory, the effects are downscaled to the county level using a set of location coefficients. The model is applied to Catalonia, one of the most visited coastal regions in the Mediterranean. Here tourism contributes approximately 11% of its gross domestic product (GDP) and most visitors are related to coastal tourism. Although SLR affects the entire region with relatively small spatial variations in the induced shoreline retreat, its impact on the beach carrying capacity per county and the number of potential users exhibits a large spatial variability. Considering the RCP8.5 scenario as a reference, Catalonia's key coastal tourism brands, Costa Brava and Costa Daurada, will be the most affected economically, with an expected GDP loss of approximately 2200 million € and 1820 million € (at 2019 values), respectively. Finally, these local estimations were used to identify where the greatest benefits/returns would be derived from implementing adaptation measures to the SLR. This analysis was done by normalising the GDP losses that could be avoided in each county, with the length of beaches needed to provide recreation services to sustain the tourism economy.

This work was supported by the Spanish Ministry of Economy and Competitiveness (MINECO/AEI/FEDER, UE) in the framework of the M-CostAdapt project (CTM2017-83655-C2-1-R).

Peer Reviewed

Postprint (published version)