Sea level rise in Europe: knowledge gaps identified through a participatory approach

Abstract

The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) plays a pivotal role in delivering information and knowledge on sea level rise (SLR), a global threat impacting coastlines worldwide. However, considerable disparities still persist in Europe in understanding and applying sea level science, evaluating its repercussions, and devising effective adaptation strategies. These are influenced by local factors such as diverse environments, socioeconomic conditions, policy contexts, and diversity in stakeholder involvement, producing, in turn, varying knowledge gaps and information needs across European sea basins. In this context, this chapter presents the findings of a comprehensive scoping process carried out by the European Knowledge Hub on Sea Level Rise (KH SLR) to define the outline of the first KH SLR Assessment Report. It consists of the analysis of stakeholder responses to an online survey and insights shared during four regional workshops, aiming to pinpoint critical gaps in available information on SLR and its potential consequences in European sea basins. It considers viewpoints from both scientific and policy perspectives, engaging stakeholders from academia and research and government sectors. The analysis is divided into three categories: (i) SLR science and information, (ii) SLR impacts, and (iii) SLR adaptation policies and decision-making. Regarding SLR science and information, many respondents found that relevant gaps exist in regional SLR projections and uncertainties, particularly related to long-term (from multidecadal to end of century) SLR induced by potential melting of large ice sheets. Interestingly, the perspective on information gaps is different for scientists (emphasizing the need to increase regional projection capabilities) and government users (stressing the availability of accurate projections for their regions). Regarding impacts and hazards, shoreline erosion stands out as a dominant concern in all sea basins except the Arctic, while emerging issues like saltwater intrusion and the role of SLR in compound risks associated with extreme water levels and river flow were also given significant regional relevance. With regard to policy and decision-making, existing adaptation plans are perceived as ineffective and lacking adaptability, with gaps related to underestimated impacts and urban planning. Participants, especially end-users of sea level knowledge, emphasized the relevance of improved information dissemination and communication to support informed decision-making.

This research has been supported by the C3RiskMed (grant no. PID2020-113638RB-C21) research project funded by the Spanish Ministry of Science and Innovation (grant no. AEI/10.13039/501100011033), by the Spanish Research Agency (AEI), and by the SeaPR project funded by the Bjerknes Center for Climate Research (BCCR) initiative for strategic projects.

Peer Reviewed

Objectius de Desenvolupament Sostenible::13 - Acció per al Clima

Postprint (published version)