Title:
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Skilful forecasting of global fire activity using seasonal climate predictions
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Author:
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Turco, Marco; Jerez, Sonia; Doblas Reyes, Francisco Javier; Aghakouchak, Amir; Llasat Botija, María del Carmen; Provenzale, Antonello
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Other authors:
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Universitat de Barcelona |
Abstract:
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Societal exposure to large fires has been increasing in recent years. Estimating the expected fire activity a few months in advance would allow reducing environmental and socio-economic impacts through short-term adaptation and response to climate variability and change. However, seasonal prediction of climate-driven fires is still in its infancy. Here, we discuss a strategy for seasonally forecasting burned area anomalies linking seasonal climate predictions with parsimonious empirical climate-fire models using the standardized precipitation index as the climate predictor for burned area. Assuming near-perfect climate predictions, we obtained skilful predictions of fire activity over a substantial portion of the global burnable area (~60%). Using currently available operational seasonal climate predictions, the skill of fire seasonal forecasts remains high and significant in a large fraction of the burnable area (~40%). These findings reveal an untapped and useful burned area predictive ability using seasonal climate forecasts, which can play a crucial role in fire management strategies and minimise the impact of adverse climate conditions. |
Subject(s):
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-Precipitacions (Meteorologia) -Previsió del temps -Clima -Incendis forestals -Precipitations (Meteorology) -Weather forecasting -Climate -Forest fires |
Rights:
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cc-by (c) Turco, Marco et al., 2018
http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/3.0/es |
Document type:
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Article Article - Published version |
Published by:
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Nature Publishing Group
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