Abstract:
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The U.S. experienced an unprecedented increase in fertility during thebaby boom. After falling for a century and a half, fertility rates jumpedby 45 percent from 1945 to 1955, before resuming their decline in 1965.The elevated birth rates from 1946 to 1964 were driven in part by a shifttoward more universal marriage; marriage rates increased by 25 percentfrom 1930 to 1950 and the average age of marriage fell by two years. Thispaper argues that growth in the supply of housing after World War IIcontributed to the expansion of marriage during this period. Specifically,the paper estimates the effect of additional building permits (a proxyfor housing supply) at the city level on individual marriage outcomes.An instrumental variable approach is used to address endogenous permitlocation. I construct an annual level instrument using the national permitseries in conjunction with a city s geographical constraints, region andaverage temperature. I find a standard deviation increase in permits to acity increased the probability of marriage in that city by 13 to 16 percentover a two-year period. The estimates suggest that the growth in housingsupply in the late 1940s can explain about 33 percent of the difference inmarriage rates between 1930 and 1950. Overall, the increase in housingsupply can account for nearly ten percent of the baby boom. |