Title:
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The effects of government spending endogeneity on estimated multipliers in the U.S.
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Author:
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Moura, Alban
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Abstract:
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This paper uses an estimated sticky-price model to identify endogenous movements in government consumption in the U.S. economy. Two feedback effects are considered, one originating from the stock of public debt and one from contemporaneous output. The data provide significant statistical evidence in favor of such mechanisms, even though a subsample analysis reveals that their strength may have decreased over time. Monte Carlo simulations assessing a DSGE model with exogenous spending and various identified VARs suggest that failing to account for these feedbacks may induce a severe upward bias in estimated multipliers. |
Abstract:
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The ADEMU Working Paper Series is being supported by the European Commission Horizon 2020 European Union funding for Research & Innovation, grant agreement No 649396. |
Subject(s):
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-Government spending multiplier -Endogenous fiscal policy -Structural econometrics |
Rights:
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This is an Open Access article distributed under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution License Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International, which permits unrestricted use, distribution and reproduction in any medium provided that the original work is properlyattributed.
https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/
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Document type:
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Working Paper |
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