Advanced seasonal predictions for vine management based on bioclimatic indicators tailored to the wine sector

Abstract

The potential increase in the adoption value of seasonal forecasts is spotlighted in this paper by introducing observation-forecast blending for wine-sector indicators over the Iberian Peninsula. The predictions of six bioclimatic indicators (temperature and precipitation based) considered highly important from the perspective of wine-sector users were prepared for each month of the growing season and combined with previous observations as the indicator period progresses. The performance of this approach was then assessed with Pearson’s correlation coefficient and Fair Ranked Probability Skill Score (FRPSS). The results show a marked increase in the skill metrics during the growing season from the early combinations for all the indicators. This progressive improvement of the forecasting skill offers the users an opportunity to ponder anticipation and confidence in their decisions and, thus, facilitate the future uptake of seasonal forecasting in their decision planning

Thanks to all the partners of the project MED-GOLD (Turning climate-related information into added value for traditional MEDiterranean Grape, Olive and Durum Wheat food systems, agreement no. 776467), the project VITIGEOSS (Vineyard innovative tools based on the integration of Earth Observation services and in-field sensors, agreement no. 869565) and the project ASPECT (HE-101081460) funded by the European Union. The results contain modified Copernicus Climate Change Service information. Neither the European Commission nor ECMWF is responsible for any use that may be made of the Copernicus information or data it contains. Thanks to SOGRAPE as the end-user for providing feedback in the co-development process. One of the coauthors, Raül Marcos-Matamoros, is a Serra Húnter Fellow. Finally, we thank the reviewers, whose comments helped improve the paper substantially.

Peer Reviewed

"Article signat per 11 autors/es: Chihchung Chou, Raül Marcos-Matamoros, Lluís Palma Garcia, Núria Pérez-Zanón, Marta Teixeira, Sara Silva, Natacha Fontes, Antonio Graça, Alessandro Dell'Aquila, Sandro Calmanti, Nube González-Reviriego"

Postprint (published version)