Correlation between earthquakes and ionosphere scintillation measured with GNSS remote sensing techniques

Abstract

The Lithosphere- Atmosphere-Ionosphere coupling models have been widely studied and applied to earthquakes and their precursors. Recently, evidence has been found that electromagnetic phenomena related to earthquakes might produce ionospheric anomalies even before their occurrence. This thesis aims to analyze the correlation between ionospheric scintillation and seismic events such as earthquake precursors, with the hypothesis that there is a positive correlation. Among all the ionospheric indicators, this study analyzes the S4 scintillation index from COSMIC-2 GNSS Radio Occultation (GNSS-RO), to estimate the ionospheric perturbation and identify anomalies. Case studies of earthquakes happening in 2022, as well as a statistical analysis centered on the Coral Sea area, are presented showing positive correlation. In some of the case studies are seen anomalies up to one week before the earthquake. Moreover, in the statistical analysis it is shown a correlation with anomalies happening between 3 and 6 days before the earthquakes and the earthquake itself. A probability of detection of 35.7% and a false alarm rate of 7.1% are obtained. This leads to the conclusion of ionospheric scintillation and seismic activity having a small positive correlation.

Outgoing

Objectius de Desenvolupament Sostenible::13 - Acció per al Clima

Objectius de Desenvolupament Sostenible::9 - Indústria, Innovació i Infraestructura