Projecting the future incidence and burden of dengue in Southeast Asia

Abstract

The recent global expansion of dengue has been facilitated by changes in urbanisation, mobility, and climate. In this work, we project future changes in dengue incidence and case burden to 2099 under the latest climate change scenarios. We fit a statistical model to province-level monthly dengue case counts from eight countries across Southeast Asia, one of the worst affected regions. We project that dengue incidence will peak this century before declining to lower levels with large variations between and within countries. Our findings reveal that northern Thailand and Cambodia will show the biggest decreases and equatorial areas will show the biggest increases. The impact of climate change will be counterbalanced by income growth, with population growth having the biggest influence on increasing burden. These findings can be used for formulating mitigation and adaptation interventions to reduce the immediate growing impact of dengue virus in the region.

F.J.C.-G., R.G., R.L. and O.J.B. were supported by the UK Space Agency Dengue Forecasting Model Satellite-based System (D-MOSS). R.L. was supported by a Royal Society Dorothy Hodgkin Fellowship.

Peer Reviewed

Postprint (published version)