dc.contributor
Barcelona Supercomputing Center
dc.contributor.author
Colón González, Felipe J.
dc.contributor.author
Gibb, Rory
dc.contributor.author
Khan, Kamran
dc.contributor.author
Watts, Alexander
dc.contributor.author
Lowe, Rachel
dc.contributor.author
Brady, Oliver J.
dc.identifier
Colón González, F.J. [et al.]. Projecting the future incidence and burden of dengue in Southeast Asia. "Nature Communications", 2023, vol. 14, 5439.
dc.identifier
https://hdl.handle.net/2117/393348
dc.identifier
10.1038/s41467-023-41017-y
dc.description.abstract
The recent global expansion of dengue has been facilitated by changes in urbanisation, mobility, and climate. In this work, we project future changes in dengue incidence and case burden to 2099 under the latest climate change scenarios. We fit a statistical model to province-level monthly dengue case counts from eight countries across Southeast Asia, one of the worst affected regions. We project that dengue incidence will peak this century before declining to lower levels with large variations between and within countries. Our findings reveal that northern Thailand and Cambodia will show the biggest decreases and equatorial areas will show the biggest increases. The impact of climate change will be counterbalanced by income growth, with population growth having the biggest influence on increasing burden. These findings can be used for formulating mitigation and adaptation interventions to reduce the immediate growing impact of dengue virus in the region.
dc.description.abstract
F.J.C.-G., R.G., R.L. and O.J.B. were supported by the UK Space Agency Dengue Forecasting Model Satellite-based System (D-MOSS). R.L. was supported by a Royal Society Dorothy Hodgkin Fellowship.
dc.description.abstract
Peer Reviewed
dc.description.abstract
Postprint (published version)
dc.format
application/pdf
dc.publisher
Nature Research
dc.relation
https://www.nature.com/articles/s41467-023-41017-y
dc.relation
Data sets generated and/or analysed during the current study are available within the paper, the provided link or are appended as Supplementary Data. Source data are provided with this paper. The processed epidemiological, climatic, socioeconomic and demographic data are available at the Centre for Open Science OSF data repository (https://osf.io/85xwq/, https://doi.org/10.17605/OSF.IO/85XWQ). Code availability The code for the statistical model is available for download from GitHub https://github.com/FelipeJColon/Projecting_dengue_SEA or from the Centre for Open Science OSF data repository https://osf.io/85xwq/, https://doi.org/10.17605/OSF.IO/85XWQ.
dc.rights
http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/
dc.rights
Attribution 4.0 International
dc.subject
Àrees temàtiques de la UPC::Ciències de la salut::Medicina::Medicina comunitària i salut pública
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Àrees temàtiques de la UPC::Desenvolupament humà i sostenible::Degradació ambiental::Canvi climàtic
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Public health surveillance.
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Southeast Asia
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Environmental impact
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Viral infection
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Simulació per ordinador
dc.title
Projecting the future incidence and burden of dengue in Southeast Asia
