A proposed post-fire planning approach based on DEMATEL in Vesuvius National Park

Abstract

We present a site-agnostic workflow to identify Fireline Tactical Support Points (FTSPs) and corridors following wildfire where spectral-change proxies (dNBR, RdNBR, and dNDVI) are paired pre/post-fire and co-registered on a 20 m grid together with a 72 h rainfall accumulation layer, which is treated as an operational feasibility and safety overlay, complementing access and terrain. Applied to the Vesuvius National Park (Italy) wildfire episode of August 2025, the pipeline yields suitability/susceptibility surfaces, ranked factors, and corridor candidates, with estimated successes including coherent prioritization within high-severity mosaics, improved continuity toward existing access routes, and reduced overlap with mapped sensitive areas at like-for-like suitability. Low-carbon staging is retained as a design safeguard, while detailed greenhouse-gas accounting is intentionally deferred to future, fleet-resolved multi-criteria analyses. The approach enables rapid, repeatable decision support and is relevant to SDG 11 (Sustainable Cities and Communities), SDG 13 (Climate Action), and SDG 15 (Life on Land)

We gratefully acknowledge, for institutional support and constructive discussions, the Agenzia per la Protezione Civile—Provincia Autonoma di Bolzano/Alto Adige (USP/Vigili del Fuoco), and the public agencies that provided open datasets and services: ESA—Copernicus Open Access Hub (Sentinel-2); European Commission, JRC—Copernicus Emergency Management Service (CEMS); European Environment Agency (EEA)—Copernicus Land Monitoring Service (EU-DEM, CLMS); Ministero dell’Ambiente e della Sicurezza Energetica (MASE)/ISPRA; Regione Campania—Centro Funzionale Multirischi di Protezione Civile; and the Ente Parco Nazionale del Vesuvio. We acknowledge the developers and maintainers of pyDEMATEL and QGIS (latest LTR) for their open-source tools that enabled this work. The author acknowledges the support of the Serra Húnter Programme of the Government of Catalonia and the Universitat Politècnica de Catalunya (UPC), under which this work has been developed

Postprint (published version)